수입 수산물과 국내산 수산물 가격의 유통단계별 인과성 분석

Abstract

Abstract

This study examine the relationship of the prices between imported fisheries and domestic fisheries in distribution channel and applies the cointegration theory to analyse the causality focused on the prices of import, wholesale and retail about the frozen Alaska pollack, hairtail and croaker which take up high portion and are popular among most of the consumers. In process of analysis, the unit root test was adopted to find the stability of time series data prior to the cointegration test. If the time series data were found as stable in unit root test, the VAR model was adopted in analysis. If unstable, the cointegratioin test was adopeted to find the long-run equilibrium relationship between the data. When the long-run equilibrium relationship was found among the price of the import, wholesale and retail price, the VECM model was adoped. If not, the differenced VAR model was adopted. The main findings of this study could be summarized as follows: First, according to the result of the analysis on VAR model, time series data of frozen Alaska pollack were found as stable and had causality relationship and close effect existed among the import, wholesale and retail prices. Second, the data of frozen hairtail were found as unstable in unit root test and the result of cointegration test showed the long-run equilibrium relationship at lag 1. From the results of VECM model, I could find that all of the coefficient in error correction is effective, and the sign is negative(-). It suggests existence of adjustment tendency to long-run equilibrium after a short-run deviation. But the short-run causality between the prices were not found except for the price of wholesale. Third, according to the results of differenced VAR model, data from frozen croaker don't have the stability and long-run equilibrium. Moreover, it was found that the import price has a weak causality on the retail price. Because of the difficulties in collecting data, the result of this paper could not explain perfectly the relationship among the prices of import, wholesale and retail. However, it more or less contributed to a long-lasted debate on the direction of causality of price-setting in academic research and provided a useful guide for the policy makers in charge of the price-setting of fisheries products as well.