Drought prediction till 2100 under RCP 8.5 Climate Change Scenario for Korea

Abstract

This study has utilized the Effective Drought Index (EDI) to precisely and quantitatively predict future drought in Korea for the period 2014 – 2100. The EDI was computed from the daily precipitation data generated by the regional climate model (HadGEM3-RA) under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP 8.5) scenario. Using the data for 678 grid points (12.5 km interval) over Korea clusters with similar climates namely G1 (Northwest), G2 (Middle), G3 (Northeast) and G4 (Southern) regions were constructed. The forecasted period was categorised into the early phase (EP, 2014-2040), middle phase (MP, 2041-2070), and the latter phase (LP, 2071-2100). As a result, all drought events were quantified and ranked according to their duration and intensity. Also, the future occurrences of drought (when, where, how severe) were represented as a spatial map. Based on grid-point averages, the most severe drought throughout the 87-year period is expected to occur in Namwon around 2039-2041 with a peak intensity (minimum EDI) –3.54 and duration of 580 days. The most severe drought by cluster analysis is expected to occur in the region G3 with the mean intensity of –2.85 in 2027. Throughout the spatial area of investigation, almost 6.6 years of drought periodicity and slight decrease in their peak intensity was noted. Finally, a spatial-temporal drought map was constructed for all clusters and time-periods.