가산자료모형을 이용한 남해 상주 은모래비치의 경제적 가치 추정

Abstract

The purpose of this study is to estimate the economic value of Sangju Eunmorae Beach using count data model and Travel cost analysis(TCM). To estimate the economic value, a survey was conducted at Sangju Enmorae Beach, and a total of 307 samples could be secured. In the questionnaires, respondents are asked about the factors which have an influence on the number of visits, for example, average monthly wages, travel cost, age, the preference of seafood eating, local seafood purchase, ocean leisure/sports when respondents visit Sangju Eunmorae Beach, asset income, the gender of children, etc. Unlike other studies, respondents are asked not for the number of visits per year but for the number of visits per three years and five years. To estimate the economic value of Namhae Eunmorae Beach, travel cost is classified with three cases, TC1, TC2 and TC3. TC1 is computed based on distance from residence to Namhae Eunmorae Beach and cost of fuel. TC2 is computed by adding TC1, toll fee and depreciation cost of tire. TC3 includes TC2 with the opportunity cost of travel time. Considering on-site survey and the non-existent over dispersion in data set, zero-truncated Poisson model has been employed. Based on the results from zero-truncated Poisson, economic value is estimated in Travel cost analysis. When four models(the model with the number of visits per 3years or 5years, and the one with whether child(male) variable employed or not) are compared, the model with the number of visits per three years and except for child(male) is most proper model in this study. Variables are significant at 1%, 5%, 10% level each. Income, marine leisure/sport, purchasing local product, age and the gender of children variables have a positive influence on the number of visits. On the other hand, travel cost and seafood eating variables have negative influence on the number of visits. Economic value of Sangju Eunmorae Beach is 43,505won with TC1 model, 50,388won with TC2 model, and 109,214won with TC3 model per person per year. The total economic value of Sangju Eunmorae Beach is 713,422,888 thousands won in TC1 model, 826,296,030 thousands won in TC2 model, and 1,790,956,811 thousands won in TC3 model per year at 2% discount rate. At 4% discount rate, the total economic value of Sangju Eunmorae Beach is 363,705,786 thousands won in TC1 model, 421,248,956 thousands won in TC2 model, and 913,036,805 thousands won in TC3 model per year.