상세 미래기후예측자료를 이용한 북극항로의 선박 접근성에 관한 연구

Abstract

Change of arctic sea ice extented by climate change offers new opportunity as social, environmental and economic aspects. Especially, it becomes an important issue to use the Arctic ship route bia Northern Sea Route(NSR) and Northwest Passage(NWP). It’s so difficult to decide navigation durations and ship accessibilities as an economic aspect with regarding to potential impacts. So, we need more detail information for significant change over the arctic. High resolution climate model may provide a regional information on the changes in arctic sea ice extent as well as thickness in detail. GME used in this study is a high-resolution model adopted on icosahedral-hexagonal grid. As an evaluation of model simulation overestimates the sea ice extent compared to observation for all months in 1979-2009. However, it is in a good agreement with observed data (HadlSST-SIC) in term of the maximum in March and the minimum in September. We analyzed thickness and extent changes of the Arctic sea ice for the future. Projections of marine accessibility has been estimated based on daily sea ice thickness data for 2010-2039, 2040-2069, and 2070-2099. With the RCP 4.5 scenarios, sea ice has maintained until 2100 except for Barents Sea. Under RCP 8.5 scenario, the sea ice extent decreased dramatically after 2060. Finally, it would be continue the almost ice-free seasons over the Arctic in 2090s. Ship-accessible days which is estimated by three vessel classes(PC3, PC6 and OW) from 2010 to 2099. Under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, changes in terms of day over study area for vessel classes, PC3 has the largest and OW shows the smallest among the three vessel types. After 2070, PC3 and PC6 may be possible to access year-round over the Arctic Ocean with the RCP 8.5 scenario. In contrast, OW shows seasonal handicap that is hard to pass through the NSR and NP. In conclusion, we have performed a study to estimate the ship accessibility for Northern Sea Route (NSR) and Northwest Passage (NP) based on the future climate with RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. And this study has suggested prediction of the optimal navigation routes from 2010 to 2099 based on the “Automatic navigation” algorithm.

Keywords: Arctic, GME, NSR, NP, Optimal navigation routes, Ship-accessible days