AR5 RCP 8.5 기후변화 시나리오에 따른 미래 PMPs 전망

Abstract

In this presentation, Korea’s probable maximum precipitations (PMPs) which reflects all of the storm data until recently are calculated, and are compared to the existing PMPs which were calculated at 2000. In Korea, abnormal weather phenomena such as typhoon Rusa and Maemi, and the extreme rainfall event occurred on the east coast of the northern region, that can have a significant impact on the PMPs estimation, have frequently happened since 2000. After selecting 240 major storm events from 1973 to 2012, new PMPs are proposed with respect to storm areas (25, 100, 225, 400, 900, 2025, 4900, 10000 and 19600 km2)and storm durations(1, 2,4, 6, 8, 12, 18, 24, 48 and 72 hours) using the Korea hydro-meteorological method. After estimating future PMPs using future rainfall and dewpoint temperature information under the Korea Meteorological Administration AR5 RCP8.5, changes in the PMPs under climate change will be investigated by comparison with present and future PMPs. By separating the changes in PMPs under climate change into the changes caused by rainfall and dewpoint temperature, the relative impact of future rainfall and dewpoint temperature information under climate change on future PMPs is quantified.