공간 다수준 분석을 이용한 부산지역 암발생 및 암사망 추정

Abstract

Cancer is a typical cause of death in Korea that become major issue in health care. According to Cause of Death Statistics(2014) by National Statistical Office, SMRs(standardized mortality rates) in Busan was counted as the highest among all cities. In this paper, we used data of Busan Regional Cancer Center to estimate the extent of the cancer incidence rate and cancer mortality rate. data is considered in small areas of administrative units such as Gu/Dong from years 2003 to 2009. All cancer and four major cancers(stomach cancer, colorectal cancer, lung cancer, liver cancer) are analyzed. Model selection and parameter estimation were conducted by using spatial multi-level model considering the spatial correlation. For the spatial effects, CAR(conditional autoregressive) model is assumed and utilized by WinBUGS. The results suggest how we analyze and interpret the spatial effects for each area.