시간별 수자원량과 강수 강도를 이용한 재해 확률표의 개발 및 검증

Abstract

Recently the trends that the precipitation is increasing and concentrating in short time are raising the risk of damage and disaster, but no enough skills to quantify them have been found yet. Using the Long term remaining Water Index (LWI) and the Short term remaining Water Index (SWI) that calculate the existing water resources and the concentration of water after the processes of precipitation, runoff, and evapotranspiration, this study has succeeded to quantify the water related risks, and to relate them to real occurrences of damages. 15 years record (from 2000 to August, 2014) on water related damages at the 6 regions were compared with probability table produced by indices that can be used to predict the occurrences of damages. The predictability of this table has tested on the case of a heavy rains of August 25th and shown three case in the exact detection. [Case of exact detection:] the probability exactly risen up to 100 % at the time of disaster in Jinbuk, Geumjeonggu, Goseong, in Gijang. [Case of early detection]: It reached 100 % an hour and a half early in Gijang and 30 minutes early in Changwon [Case of late detection:] It reached 100 % 30 minute late in Dongnae. Consequently it can’t accurately detect the time of disasters in all region but the error is not more than an hour and 30minutes. Therefore if prediction precipitation is correct, this method would give more accurate warning system and time to prepare for disaster.