한․중 수산물의 가격경쟁관계 분석 : 조기류를 대상으로

Abstract

This study is aimed to estimate market integration between Korean and Chinese Croaker on the Korean fish market, using multivariate cointegration analysis and price function estimation. For the analysis of market integration between Korean and Chinese Croaker(99.9% imported from China), major three fish species belong to Croaker - White croaker, Yellow croaker, Small yellow croaker were selected as analytical target fish species. And their monthly price data from January 2000 to December 2014 were used in analysis. Prior to the analysis, the Croaker production, consumption, and trade trends were reviewed. Croaker production in Korea was steadily decreasing and trade with China also decreased. The price of domestic and imported shows a rising trend. The results of the multivariate cointegration test for each species of domestic fishery products and imported Croaker show that there would be long-term equilibrium relationships among prices of them. It means that the two fishery products are in competition on the same market. Price function estimation deduced results that imported Croaker price changes have shown a positive effect on domestic Croaker price. Cointegration and price function estimation results suggested that in accordance with the increasing trend of China imported croaker price, domestic croaker price would be also expected to increase.