IPCC RCP 시나리오에 따른 기후 및 토지 피복변화가 수문ㆍ수질 특성에 미치는 영향 평가: 회야강 유역을 대상으로

Abstract

This study is intended to how future climate change and land-use/ land-cover (LULC) change are going to affect the amount and quality of water discharging in the basin of Hoeya River using SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) model. For this purpose, climate prediction from RCP 4.5 scenario and RCP 8.5 scenario which are opposite to each other among RCP scenarios that are expected to be used for IPCC 5 evaluation report is used for future weather data. This study predicted the amount of water discharge, sediment discharge, T-N and T-P loads from 2000s (2000~2009) to 2020s (2020~2029), 2040s (2040~2049), 2060s (2060~2069). As the result, climate change and LULC change showed distinctive seasonal change that increases discharge amount for spring and winter and decreases it for summer and autumn. This is similar to change in future precipitation under RCP 4.5 scenario and RCP 8.5 scenario indicating that discharge amount is very sensitive to precipitation. Although sediment discharge amount, T-N and T-P also indicate similar trend to change in discharge amount, as year average pollution load is increasing, it is predicted that the inflow of nonpoint pollutant source is increasing due to severe precipitation within the basin and water pollution is getting worse. Therefore, it's required to manage nonpoint pollutant source and prepare suitable measurement policies for water resource in a way that addresses potential effects for climate change for consistent water resource management.