지역 간 경기 공행성에 관한 연구

Abstract

Business cycle comovement refers to the common and simultaneous movement of major macroeconomic indicators shown in the economic fluctuation. Overall fluctuation of economic activities of the national economy have major influences over the government and corporations as well as daily lives of general people. Business cycle comovement at both national and regional levels are critical study subjects, but most of the previous studies on business cycle comovement were made at the national level. Studies on business cycle comovement in between nations were generally made in the areas of trade, finance and industry, and there are almost no studies on business cycle comovement at the regional level. However, in consideration of the current global trend where glocalization has been strengthened, it would worth to take a look at business cycle comovement at the regional level. Due to the global trend of glocalization, the specialization and localization of a region have become critical in terms of economic environment and the interchange between regions have become more active. Since an economic shock arisen at one specific region and/or one specific industrial production could have a major influence on the economic fluctuation of other regions that are correlated with the corresponding region and/or industrial production, it is critical to have a study on the analysis of business cycle comovement at the regional region. This study aims to analyze the interregional business cycle comovement at the regional level, which is a sub-unit of a nation. For the study, official regional GDPs, released by the National Statistical Office, were used to calculate the mobile correlation coefficient in order to observe whether economies of neighboring regions move together. As for the spatial domain, three economy regions were set; great-sphere economy, metropolitan economy, and economy of other provinces. For the great-sphere economy, it was divided into 5 areas; capital area, Chungcheong area, Honam area, Daekyung area and Southeast area. The results of the analysis are as follows. Based on the regional GDP, it was shown that the interregional business cycle comovement is present in the capital area. In terms of industrial sectors, the interregional business cycle comovement was shown to present in manufacturing and service industries. On the other hand, it is difficult to say that the interregional business cycle comovement is present in Chungcheong area. In terms of industrial sectors, the interregional business cycle comovement was observed in the manufacturing industry, but it was weakened in the service industry. As for Honam area, it was shown that the interregional business cycle comovement is present. In terms of industrial sectors, interregional business cycle comovement has been strengthened since 2010, and interregional business cycle of high degree was shown in the service industry. In Daekyung area, it was shown that the interregional business cycle comovement is present, but it has been somewhat degraded since 2007. In terms of industrial sectors, the interregional business cycle comovement in both manufacturing and service industries have been strengthened. In Southeast area, it was revealed that the interregional business cycle comovement has become weakened. In terms of industrial sectors, there was almost no interregional business cycle comovement in manufacturing and service industries. In the metropolitan area, it was observed, based on the regional GDP, that there is a relatively high correlation throughout the period, and there is the interregional business cycle comovement. In terms of industrial sectors, the correlation coefficients of manufacturing and services industries were very similar to that of the national average, but it was difficult to say that the interregional business cycle comovement is present. As for the last, based on the regional GDPs, it was shown that the provincial regions move very similar to the national average level, but It has a lower correlation than the national average. Also, in terms of industrial sectors, both manufacturing and service industries have moved very similar to the national average, but it seems difficult to say that the business cycle comovement is present. Based on these findings, it is possible to see that there are differences in the business cycle comovement between spheres, and city sizes. Major assignment of the theory of economic fluctuation is to reveal a cause of economic fluctuation and seek appropriate macroeconomic policies in order to minimize any damage caused by the economic fluctuation. Also, another assignment is to observe differences in regional and demographic structure (labor) between regions, along with regional economic fluctuations. The fact that the economic situation differs by region suggests that regional economic fluctuation could also differ by region. The analysis of interregional business cycle comovement could provide information on the economic movements in the region and special features of economic fluctuation, led by a change in the industrial structure, that could not be obtained from the existing analysis of economic fluctuation and business cycle comovement, in turn assisting with the establishment of new countermeasures against the economic fluctuation. In addition, it could help find an alternative measure to minimize the asymmetric feature of the economic fluctuation. Therefore, it would be helpful for local governments to pursue regional economic policies that are devised in consideration of regional economic loss led by economic fluctuation. Moreover, there would be a growing number of regional economic policies in order to reduce volatibility in the economic cycle since it is possible to conduct economic policies accounting regional features due to the resurgence of local autonomy.