관광목적지 부산방문 외래관광객 수요예측에 관한 연구

Abstract

This study is intended to look into the demand forecast of Busan tourism by Jenkins(1976)'s ARIMA(Autoregressive Intergrated Moving Average) method used in previous studies. The findings are as follows. First, the accuracy of forecast analysis showed that the accuracy of forecast was high, along with the existing previous studies. Second, time series analysis for the demand forecast of Busan tourism through 2009 to 2015 by the classification of Busan visiting tourists into foreigners and Japanese showed that ARIMA(0,1,4)(0,1,0) and ARIMA(0,1,0)(0,1,1) models were finally selected for foreigners and Japanese, respectively, through the phase of stationarity, model identification and parameter estimation. These three models had a high explanation power of 82.4% and 78.0% and were estimated at relatively low BIC and Q-statistics. Since all three models were greater than 0.05, they all had an independent white noise, indicating that forecast models were appropriate. Third, the demand forecast of foreign tourists in Busan area showed that the demand for them would decline consistently. A monthly demand of them was forecast to be the highest in August, followed by in October, May, April and June, but it was forecast to be the lowest in January and February.

Fourth, there were 2,966,000 foreign tourists who visited Busan in 2016, an increase of 41.9% from 2015(2,090,000 persons), and there were 939,000 Chinese tourists who visited Busan in 2016, an increase of 70.1% from a year ago(552,000 persons). But the increase can be attributed to a recovery in the number of Chinese tourists who were sharply reduced in Busan due to the MERS situation in 2015. Overall, the demand forecast of Busan tourism for foreign tourists through ARIMA models was in good agreement with the actual value. The influence of events such as SARS in 2016 or Dokdo dispute with Japan was an impediment factor that drastically reduces the demand for Busan tourism. By contrast, however, the number of Japanese tourists visiting Korea was increased due to the influence of Korean Wave, which has become an important issue in the Japanese tourist market. This suggests that the number of tourists visiting Korea can dramatically depend on the continuation of the Korean Wave effect. Consequently, the Korean Wave can be an important factor in the policy for Japanese tourists visiting Korea tourists in the future.