준이상수요체계를 이용한 국내산 주요 수산물의 수요분석

Abstract

In this study, the system of demands for fishery products was estimated by using AIDS (Almost-Ideal Demand System) model based on consumer theory. The representative Korean fishery products used in our analysis were Mackerel, Hairtail, Squids, Yellow croaker, Oyster and Seaweed. In order to estimate the appropriate AIDS model, Independent variables were tested for endogeneity. As a result, instrumental regression was performed because the total expenditure variable were endogenous. The results of testing homogeneity and symmetry were all adopted, Therefore, homogeneity and symmetry constraints were not imposed. Expenditure share equations of the estimated demand system are all significant. As a result of estimating the elasticity of expenditure, it were calculated as positive values. Price elasticity analysis showed that 5 species of fishery products except for seaweed were inelastic. It was also found to be normal goods because it was calculated to be negative values. Cross elasticity analysis result showed that there was a substitute relationship between Hairtail and Mackerel. As a result of decomposition of demand factors for seven years, demand for five species of fishery products increased except for seaweed. Monthly consumer surplus estimates showed that squid was the highest at 13.6 billion won in the general demand curve, and hairtail was the highest at 9 billion won in the Hicks demand curve.