한국 동해 생태계의 잠재생산량 추정방법 비교 연구

Abstract

Due to the decrease in coastal productivity and deterioration in the quality of ecosystem which result from the excessive overfishing of fisheries resources and the environmental pollution, fisheries resources in the Korean waters hit the dangerous level in respect of quantity and quality. In order to manage sustainable and effective fisheries resources, it is necessary to suggest the potential yield (PY) for clarifying available fisheries resources in the Korean waters in the future. So far, however, there have been few studies on the estimation methods for PY in Korea. PY, which is defined as the maximum sustainable yield, is an essential data for establishing reference points for ecosystem-based resource assessment in the Korean waters. In addition, there have been no studies on the comparative analysis for the estimation methods and the substantial estimation methods for PY targeted for Large Marine Ecosystem (LME). For the reasonable management of fisheries resources, it is necessary to conduct a comprehensive study on the estimation methods for the PY which combines population dynamics and ecosystem dynamics. To reflect the research need, this study conducts a comparative analysis of estimation methods for the PY in the Korean waters of the East Sea to understand the advantages and disadvantages of each method, and suggests the estimation method which considered both population dynamics and ecosystem dynamics to supplement shortcomings of each method. The ecosystem dynamics analysis has the advantage of predicting the change of total ecosystem, but it is estimated to have the disadvantage of the great uncertainty of the PY estimates because of its needs for a lot of input parameters for estimating the PY and its limit to realizing all input data. On the other hand, the holistic production method (HPM) of the production-based analysis utilizes relatively a few assumptions and parameters, and estimates the PY by using the whole data over 51 years including the initial stage of resource exploitation. In particular, the ME model of the HPM estimates the PY on the basis of the probability-based parameters by setting a theoretically possible ranges for each parameter. Therefore, the ME model of the HPM is considered to be the most reasonable estimation method due to the high reliability of the estimated parameters. The results of this study are expected to be used as significant basic data for providing indicators and reference points for sustainable and reasonable management of fisheries resources.