분식회계의 기업특성과 예측에 관한 연구

Abstract

The purpose of this study is to investigate the characteristics of financial, profitability, leverage, turnover, corporate governance, and other characteristics of fraud accounting firms and to present the information with investors, creditors, credit rating agencies and nation for their rational decision-making. And its purpose is to provide useful clues that can be used to detect accounting fraud behavior in advance. We examine the differences between pre - and post – fraud behavior in the accounting fraud firms and the differences between the accounting fraud firms and the industry averages by t - test, Wilcoxon test, Mann - Whitney U test and logistic regression analysis. The results of this study are as follows: First, the financial characteristics of the accounting fraud firms were analyzed by dividing them into liquidity ratios, profitability ratios, leverage ratios, activity ratios and corporate governance characteristics, internal governance and external governance. The results of the mean difference test for the difference between the pre- fraud behavior and the fraud behavior period were analyzed through t-test. Among the financial characteristics, the liquidity ratio (3.471) and the activity ratio (2.336) showed a significant level within 1% and the profitability ratio (-1.682) and the leverage ratio (-1.958) showed a significant level within 10%. Also, for the corporate governance structure, the external governance structure (1.904) showed a significant level within 10%, but internal corporate governance did not show significant results. In the Wilcoxon rank sum test, among the financial characteristics. the liquidity ratios (4.082) and the activity ratios (3.544) showed a significant level within 1% and the leverage ratio (-2.287) showed a significant level within 5%. However, the profitability ratios showed no significant results. For the corporate governance structure, external governance (-2.335) showed a significant level within 5%, but internal governance (-1.129) showed no significant results. Logistic regression results showed that for the financial characteristics, the liquidity ratio (4.659) was significant at the 5% level, and the leverage ratio (6.991) was significant at 1% level. However, the profitability ratio (0.469) and the activity ratio (1.824) did not show significant results. As for corporate governance characteristics, external governance (4.060) showed significant results at 5% level, but internal governance (0.019) showed no significant results. Second, the differences in the financial characteristics and corporate governance characteristics between the accounting fraud firms and the industry averages are examined. Through the t-test, the liquidity ratio (3.922) and leverage ratio (629.013) among the financial characteristics showed a significant level within 1% and the activity ratio (1.687) showed a significant level within 10%. However, the profitability ratio (-1.006) did not show any significant results and showed different results from other variables. In addition, internal corporate governance (-12.91) showed significant results within 1%, but internal corporate governance did not show significant results. In Mann-Whitney's U-test, for financial characteristics, the active ratio (-3.854) and the profitability ratio (-3.606) showed significant levels within 1%, and the liquidity ratio (-2.527) and the leverage ratio (-1.880) showed a significant level within 5%. Also, for the characteristics of corporate governance, both internal governance (-6.782) and external governance (-3.358) showed significant results within 1%. Logistic regression results show that for financial characteristics, the liquidity ratio (13.107), the leverage ratio(16.943) and the profitability ratio(12.251) showed significant results within 1%. but The activity ratio (2.225) did not show significant results. Also As for the characteristics of corporate governance, internal governance characteristics(3.198) showed a significance level within 10%, but external governance(0.388) showed no significant result. The contribution of this study is as follows. First, unlike previous studies, the characteristics of pre-fraud and post-fraud of accounting fraud firms were analyzed and their characteristics and the industry-wide characteristics were analyzed. This can provide more and better information for rational decision making of information users. Second, I did a differenced analysis by dividing firm characteristics into financial characteristics, profitability characteristics, leverage characteristics, turnover characteristics, corporate governance characteristics and other characteristics. Third, the results of this analysis of characteristics can provide useful information for predicting misleading behavior to a large number of information users.