중국의 부동산 가격 변동 요인에 관한 연구

Abstract

Since the reform and opening up, foreign capital has continuously flown into China's real estate market. Besides, the gradual appreciation of the RMB also led to a large-scale inflow of foreign capital. In recent years, real estate prices of major cities in China have been soaring, especially in 2015 when the investment to China's real estate market made up 23.73 percent of GDP. Thus, it is meaningful to examine the influence of foreign direct investment on real estate prices. In the previous studies, many scholars showed that foreign direct investment facilitated the growth of China's real estate prices. This study aims to investigate the role of FDI in the growth of China's real estate prices in exploitation process. In this study, the research results were analyzed by dividing commericial residential building into three categories including residence, office and commercial business building by the period from July 2005 to December 2016. This paper also employed other macroeconomic variables including interest rate, exchange rate of RMB to US dollars, and industrial added value ratio which is the proxy variable of GDP. The unit root test was performed to find out whether the time series is stable. The Johansen cointegration test and bounds test were used to identify the long-run relationship between dependent variables and independent variables. Finally, cointegration vector estimation technique DOLS(dynamic ordinary least squares) and FMOLS(fully modified ordinary least squares) proved that FDI(foreign direct investment) has negative effect to China's real estate prices in exploitation process.