중국의 에너지 소비, 탄소 배출과 경제 성장 사이의 관계 분석

Abstract

Development is the eternal theme of human society, and sustainable development is the goal that humanity is pursuing. As a power raw material, energy promotes the rapid economic and social development and has become an indispensable basic factor for the development of modern society. While energy promotes economic growth and promotes economic development, it also generates large amounts of greenhouse gases, especially carbon dioxide. With the continuous development of the human economy and the continuous increase in energy consumption, issues such as “global warming” and “ecosystem deterioration” caused by the intensification of greenhouse gas emissions are seriously threatening human survival and development. As the world’s largest developing country, China is in a period of rapid economic development that needs to consume large amounts of energy. The sustained growth of energy consumption has led to an increase in greenhouse gas emissions. As a result, China has become the world’s second-largest energy consumer country and A major carbon emission country. How to achieve a sound and rapid sustainable development of the Chinese economy under the double constraints of energy consumption and carbon emissions is a very real issue. Therefore, how to deal with the relationship among energy, economy, and environment has become a problem that our government has attached great importance to. However, under this premise, the relationship between energy consumption, carbon emissions and economic growth is a complex systemic relationship. As a factor of economic growth, energy, while promoting economic growth, has also led to carbon emissions. Therefore, controlling the emission of greenhouse gases and studying the quantitative relationship between China's energy consumption, carbon emissions, and economic growth are not only the need to achieve sustainable development, but also the development of a better and faster economic development strategy for China and the realization of low-carbon The road is of great significance. This thesis is based on the theory of the relationship between energy consumption, carbon emissions and economic development, based on macro and micro perspectives. The first chapter puts forward the research background and research significance, and puts forward the research content, research methods and research framework of this article. The second chapter first analyzes the status quo of China's energy consumption, carbon emissions, and economic growth by consulting relevant data and using descriptive statistical analysis methods, and combing domestic and international energy consumption and economic growth, carbon emissions and economics. The frontier literature of growth and the mutual linkage between the three proposed the innovation of this article. The third chapter mainly analyzes the mechanism of the interaction between energy consumption, carbon emissions and economic growth, proposes the theoretical basis for energy consumption, carbon emissions, and economic growth, and qualitatively analyzes the current situation of China's economic development, industrial structure, and energy structure. The possible impact of economic development level, industrial structure and energy structure on carbon emissions. The fourth chapter is the most important part of this article - empirical analysis. First of all, using cointegration tests, Granger causality tests and other measurement methods, the relationship between China's energy consumption and economic growth and the relationship between China's carbon emissions and economic growth are analyzed in depth; secondly, a vector autoregressive (VAR) model is established. Using impulse response function and variance decomposition to study the dynamic relationship between the three. Finally, the fifth chapter summarizes the contents of the first few chapters, and through the results of empirical analysis, the relationship between the three is clarified. On this basis, corresponding countermeasures and suggestions are proposed, and on the premise of ensuring economic growth, energy is effectively reduced. Consumption and carbon emissions provide new impetus for the harmonious development of the environment and economy.

Key words: economic growth, energy consumption, carbon emission, vector autoregressive model, empirical research.