한미 FTA 전후 양국 섬유 교역의 패턴 변화 분석

Abstract

At the time of the entry into force of the Korea-US FTA, textiles have been expected to enjoy considerable benefits, including automobiles and their parts, and electric and electronic products, which are the major export items to the US. The textile industry was one of the industries that was classified as a comparative advantage item. When the Korea-US FTA came into effect, it was predicted that Korea's textile industry would become competitive due to the elimination of tariffs and tariff cuts, which would boost exports to the US. It was believed that the Korea-US FTA would bring trade surplus to Korea's textile trade. However, actual results show different results. Unlike the expectation that it will be the biggest beneficiary of the Korea-US FTA through increased textile exports, Korea's textile exports showed only modest export growth. Therefore, this study aims to analyze the effect of the Korea-US FTA on textile trade in Korea. To analyze the changes in textile trade due to the effect of the Korea-US FTA, I used the data that minimizing the effects of other variables other than the Korea-US FTA. That’s the reason why I used the textile trade data up to 3 years before and after the Korea-US FTA. In addition, I classified the items of textile trade data for understand the trade status of each product. The analysis shows that there is no change in the textile trade after the Korea-US FTA. There was no statistically significant difference in overall trade volume. However, after the Korea-US FTA came into effect, it was confirmed that the textile items were diversified. Immediately after the FTA took effect, exports increased until 2013, but then dropped again, showing the same level of trade as before. It is confirmed that apparel and fabric are active in textile trade, and the import of yarn has increased after the Korea-US FTA. This seems to be due to the fulfillment of Yarn-Forward Rule, which is the criteria for determining the origin of fibers in the Korea-US FTA.