한반도에서 발생한 홍수 위험의 정량화 분석

Abstract

This study investigated the characteristics of flash flood risk of 57 stations and 6 groups in Korea, using Flood Index (FI; Byun and Lee, 2002) which was calculated from the daily precipitation data from 1973 to 2012. The days of FI greater than 1 mean flood risk days. In 57 stations, Gangneung (31th Aug., 4.88), Pohang (30th Sep., 4.39), Sokcho (2nd Sep., 3.97), Icheon (11th Sep., 3.71), and Busan (23th Aug., 3.56) had the biggest flood risk in each of the top five years (2002, 1998, 1984, 1990, 1991) at the ranking of flood risk in the top five years. All the trends of the yearly maximum FI in 57 stations were positive. The trend of yearly maximum FI was the highest in Seoul at the rate of 0.48 decade-1, and the lowest trend was in Miryang at 0.04 decade-1. Also, the flood risk days in the 57 stations appeared in 24th July~29th Oct., and the mean duration of flood risk was 5.75 days. The earliest mean onset date of flood risk among each of 57 stations was 5th Aug. at Busan, and the latest was in 7th Sep. at Gangneung. The earliest mean end date was 21th Aug. at Suwon, and the latest was 23th Sep. at Buan. In groups of flood risk, Korea was divided into six clusters along monthly maximum FI. The trend of the yearly maximum FI in each of 6 groups was positive. The trends of groups in the west of Korea were higher than those of the groups in east of Korea. The maximum flood risk among each of 6 groups was the highest in 31th Aug. 2002 (3.36) at G1. The highest mean frequency of flood risk was in G6 (27.8 times) and the lowest was in G5 (1.1 times). In flood risk map, all groups had flood risk in 2003. Key words: Flood Index (FI), Flood Risk