해양바이오에너지 연구개발사업의 경제적 편익 추정 및 파급효과 분석

Abstract

The need to develop new technologies and to use alternative energy resources for the worldwide energy crisis and climate change, as well as to meet carbon dioxide reduction obligations and reinforce environmental restrictions, is increasing. The Renewable Fuels Standard (RFS) proposed in the United States is projected to produce 3.6 billion gallons of bioenergy by 2022, of which 2.1 billion gallons are technologically and economically advanced, as compared to corn ethanol. Until now, first and second generation products such as cellulose ethanol from corn and other plants have been playing critical roles in Energy Independence and Security Act (EISA). However, the purpose of the EISA was to produce 2.1 billion gallons of bioenergy, which is a particular goal of RFS, using third generation products such as micro algae fuels rather than first and second generation fuels. The Republic of Korea is also affected by the EISA bill and aims at maximizing the use of new renewable energy resources by up to 11% by 2030. Nevertheless, it is very difficult to accomplish this goal because research and development as well as commercialization are not functioning effectively. A solution would be to produce bioenergy from marine organisms, which would eliminate fuel competition with edible plants. According to the Third Basic Plan for New Renewable Energy Technology Development and Usage/Distribution of 2008, mass production of marine bioenergy is aimed at 1,000 ha by 2018, producing five million TOE by 2030, with the expectation that 50% of overall bioenergy production will come from marine bioenergy. Currently, marine bioenergy has an economic limit due to technological restrictions. However, it is a field in which supply will surprisingly increase in the near future, which is why the US, EU, and Japanese governments are leading technological development and supply. Marine bioenergy is an environmental resource: the market for evaluation projections is not yet ready. However, using valuation research, non-use values or intangible values can be estimated. It is hard to define the value of the reduction effect of greenhouse gases associated with marine bioenergy as a non-commodity and, even if the value were to be defined, it is still not easy to set up the "how" part. An objective of this research was to set out some of the implications of marine bioenergy development led by the Korean government in order to reveal the economic benefits, based on a willingness-to-pay(WTP) for the reduction of greenhouse gas using contingent valuation methods (CVM) which include parametric approach such as double-bounded dichotomous choice model and spike model, and a non-parametric approach. As a result, the estimated WTP for reducing greenhouse gas due to the marine bioenergy development project is 1,180 Won to 3,117 Won per month per household based on parametric approaches and 2,158 Won to 4,401 Won per month per household based on a non-parametric approach. And the annual aggregated WTPs for the entire nation are 70.6 billion Won for a conservative scenario, 129.2 billion Won for a normal scenario, and 263.5 billion Won for an optimistic scenario. Another objective for the study was to quantify the economic effect on other industries using input-output analysis based on a demand-driven model with exogenous specifications so that more detailed economic effects can be projected. The conclusion deals with the overall economic effects of the total budget of 223.4 billion Won. The total value of induced production effects is 312.3 billion Won, which includes 223.4 billion Won from inside the industry and 88.9 billion Won from outside the industry. Added value will total 96.5 billion Won with 55 billion Won from its own industry and 31.5 billion Won from other industries. The research and development value will total 4.78 billion Won with 4.14 billion Won from its own industry and 0.64 billion Won from other industries. Also, the employment inducement effects will be up to 1,151 employees. To understand the position of marine bioenergy R&D project among the economy as a whole, there was an analysis of linkage effect among business from which the index of the sensitivity of dispersion recorded larger than 1. This means that marine bioenergy R&D project is largely effected by overall business cycle. Also, the index of power of dispersion recorded 1.0642 -larger than 1- which shows us that this business effects other industries substantially. An economic feasibility of marine bioenergy R&D project has been proved as investment efficiency index such as net present value(NPV), internal rate of return(IRR), and benefit-cost ratio(BC Ratio) record better than each evaluation criteria. The specific results show NPV of 183 billion Won at the discount rate of 5.5%, IRR of 26.15%, and B/C ratio of 1.78 under the conservative scenario. As there is no heuristic economic valuation of marine bioenergy, this will be meaningful from an academic perspective. Also, the marine bioenergy business is a public service that will be subjected to political judgments regarding the massive budget allocation. This research will provide both academic and policy implications as it is primarily based on the economic valuation of greenhouse gas reduction by marine bioenergy.