대미 수산물 수출에 관한 한-미 FTA 효과 분석 및 수출결정요인 분석

Abstract

Since the Korea-U.S. Free Trade Agreement (Korea-U.S. FTA) took effect on 13 March 2012, a wide range of studies on measuring the FTA has been conducted in various industry sectors. Nevertheless, research analyzing the effectiveness of the Korea-U.S. FTA on Korea’s seafood exports to the U.S. has not been implemented in detail. Hence, The objective of this study is to analyze the impact of Korea-U.S. FTA with a consideration of other economic determinants on Korean seafood exports to the United States. The variables associated with fisheries were seasonally adjusted according to the X-12 method and time series data on variables were estimated whether they are stationary or non-stationary using the ADF unit root test. The presence of long-term relations was detected by the ARDL bound test. On the basis of the cointegration, OLS, FMOLS and DOLS methods were used. The result indicated that the Korea-U.S. FTA would have a significant impact on Korean seafood exports to the United States. In addition, it was also shown that the real exchange rate would have an elastic-positive effect on exports and the amount of fishery production would significantly influence on Korean seafood exports to the United State. Thus, it demonstrates that the seafood exports should be supported based on sustainable resources management and production.