한·중·일 FTA의 경제적 효과 실증분석

Abstract

The slow progress of the WTO Doha round negotiations has seriously slowed down the development of the world economy. However, the development of regional economic integration is flourishing, setting off a new round of development climax in the global scope and becoming an important driving force for the world's economic development. However, compared with Europe and America, the regional economic cooperation in east Asia is still relatively backward, especially in northeast Asia dominated by China, Japan and Korea. So far, a unified regional economic organization has not been established. Therefore, in this context, the FTA of China, Japan and Korea has not only realistic economic significance, but also great strategic significance. The purpose of this paper is to study the economic effects of Korea-China-Japan FTA after its establishment, and solve the following problems through theoretical analysis and empirical analysis: 1. Constraints of Korea-China-Japan FTA at present. 2. Economic foundation of Korea-China-Japan FTA. 3. Comparative and competitive advantages of China, Japan and Korea. 4. Theoretical analysis on the economic effects of Korea-China-Japan FTA. 5. The trade potential of Korea-China-Japan FTA and its economic impact on the three countries and other major countries in the world. Based on the above analysis, this paper concludes and summarizes the policies China needs to adopt. Based on the theoretical framework and economic basis of Korea-China-Japan FTA, this paper conducts an empirical study on the economic effects of Korea-China-Japan FTA. This paper is divided into 7 chapters. The first chapter is the introduction, which introduces the research background, method, structure, innovation and shortage, and literature review. The second chapter analyzes the factors restricting Korea-China-Japan FTA and summarizes relevant theories of international regional economic integration. The third chapter discusses the economic foundation of Korea-China-Japan FTA, mainly analyzes the importance of foreign trade to the economic development of China, Japan and the Korea, and analyzes the changes in the trade pattern of China, Japan and the Korea, the competitiveness and complementarity of the trade structure, and the mutual investment status. In chapter four, RCA index and TC index are respectively used to conduct in-depth measurement of the comparative and competitive advantages of the three countries by using relevant data. In addition, relevant indexes are also used to measure the level of intra-industry trade among the three countries, so as to summarize the basic situation and development trend of the current trade structure of China, Japan and Korea in a comprehensive and detailed manner. Chapter five firstly analyzes the travel principle of china-japan-rok economic effect, then discusses the trade creation effect and trade specialty effect of Korea-China-Japan FTA from the perspective of tariff concession and comparative advantage, and finally focuses on the long-term effect of Korea-China-Japan FTA. Chapter six firstly analyzes the trade potential of Korea-China-Japan FTA with gravity model. Then, GTAP model is used to analyze the influence of Korea-China-Japan FTA on the three countries' trade scale, terms of trade, trade structure, production structure, economic growth and welfare level, and further analyze the impact on the welfare of other major countries and the world as a whole. Chapter seven puts forward the following conclusions on the basis of theoretical research and empirical analysis: 1. China should give full play to its comparative advantages and expand the space of foreign trade growth. 2. Vigorously develop intra-industry trade and accelerate industrial restructuring. 3. Further expand Japanese and rok direct investment in China and encourage Chinese enterprises to go global. 4. Strengthen communication and consultation and actively promote the establishment of an effective dispute settlement mechanism. 5. Steadily advance the FTA process in accordance with the principle of "easy first, difficult later".

Keywords: Korea-China-Japan FTA, Welfare level, Trade creation effect, Trade diversion effect, Trade expansion effect, Terms of trade effect