중국 자동차산업의 발전 동향 분석 및 수요예측

Abstract

China's automobile industry has a history of over one hundred years, but it can be seen that the true development of the automobile industry took place in the early 2000s after reform and opening up and China's accession to the WTO. From reform and opening to China's accession to the WTO, China's automobile industry has realized the concept has realized the concept of building joint ventures with foreign capital and jointly develping the market. After joining WTO, Chinese automobile industry has been more deeply integrated into the global automobile market. Today, China has become the world's largest automobile production and consumption market. The development of automobile industry has driven the development of many surrounding industries, which has positive impact on stimulating domestic demand and promoting export growth. Despite being the world's largest producer and consumer of cars, China is also the world's largest carbon emitter. Under the double pressure of energy depletion and environmental crisis, China has proclaimed to peak domestic carbon emissions by 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality by 2060. At present, China’s center and local governments are supporting the development of new energy vehicles, and restricts the progress of internal combustion engine cars by enforcing strict urban traffic regulations and new emission regulations. Thus, despite the increasingly difficult access to the market for traditional internal combustion engine vehicles, the development speed of new energy vehicles is not as fast as the support of government policies. This paper analyzes the development trend and current situation of China's automotive industry, and observes the impact of COVID-19 and the implementation of national emission standards starting in 2019 on China's automotive industry. In addition, based on the monthly automobile sales data obtained from China Automobile Association from 2010 to 2020, the time series model is used to propose and evaluate the future demand for Chinese automobiles.