해상운임 결정요인 및 운임 변동성 대응 정책 우선순위 도출 연구

Abstract

This study comprehensively reviewed previous domestic and overseas studies and confirmed the determinants of seaborne freight rates, which have been recognized as significant determinants of freight rates and were most frequently used as the determinants of freight rates in previous studies. After that, this study performed an econometrics analysis and identified determinants affecting seaborne freight rates. As a result of the analysis, the container and chemical carriers do not have autonomous coordination mechanisms to overcome the recession; dry cargo carriers do not have autonomous coordination mechanisms to overcome the boom or recession, requiring government policy intervention. If the seaborne freight rate is higher or lower than the freight rate at the time of long-term balance, the maximization of utility cannot be achieved, and if there is no autonomous coordination mechanism in the market, efficient allocation of resources through government policy intervention is required. In addition, this study attempted to present weights for each policy alternative for stabilizing seaborne freight rates by applying the AHP and derive policies that can be implemented more effectively for stabilizing freight rates. As a result of a comprehensive analysis of the ten detailed factors, the alternative bulk carriers’ shipbuilding assistance policy is 0.281, showing the highest importance among factors - subsequently, the scrap subsidy policy is 0.171 and the port fare reduction policy is 0.140. Overall, ship-related support policies such as shipbuilding and ship scraps recorded the highest importance, which is understood to be relatively greater than the cargo stabilization policy. In addition, as a result of the AHP response, the direct form of policy accompanying subsidy is more preferred than the indirect support form of policy. These results, which measured the high importance of policies in the form of subsidies, suggest that direct policies that can be expected to have an immediate effect on the shipping industry, which has been suffering from prolonged market deterioration, are much preferred by shipping companies.