부산항에서의 중국 환적화물 물동량 분석 및 예측

Abstract

Recently Chinese Transshipment cargo in Busan port has been increasing much although chinese ports grow in high speed and many shipping companies start to use chinese port as the transshipment base. This is a contradiction to many predictions that chinese port growth will decrease the throughput of transshipment in Busan port. This research try to analyze all Chinese transshipment cargo in Busan port on the basis of grouping Chinese transshipment cargo by origin/destination ports and by import/export types. We find out the trend of the throughput and important ports and regions from which they efficiently attract transshipment cargo for the Busan port. Analysis implies that transshipment cargo from the north Chinese ports will continue to increase even though Chinese government invest in large scale for the development of the port and container cargo continue to increase in the port. This is because international shipping companies have not been used the ports as expected by chinese government mainly due to the bad weather. South Chinese port cargo will grow much from the vast hinterland with high potential of economic growth. Busan port have been had small throughput of transshipment for the ports because of long distance from them but has been had notable transshipment cargo from the ports in the view of growth rate and stability. Especially export transshipment to the ports is expected to continue to grow because the geographical position of Busan port gives it superior position in the calling service of international shipping companies. Finally, we use regressions to forecast future 5 year Chinese transshipment cargo in Busan port and estimated the throughput will be around 30 million TEU in 2015.