미얀마 부동산 개발사업의 투자분석 의사결정 모델개발

Abstract

Real estate development projects are highly difficult business areas that require comprehensive management, with the entire construction process organically linked. In particular, this project has two characteristics: the threat aspect with many risk factors related to the project and the opportunistic aspect with high profit when the project succeeds. Recently, the real estate development projects in domestic is in a poor business environment due to the overall economic downturn. Therefore, new market development is required to replace it, and Myanmar is emerging as an alternative market with high investment potential. The reason is that it not only possesses a wide range of territories and various natural resources, but also has abundant and cheap labor. However, Myanmar has insufficient policy and systems related to development projects and lacks construction infrastructure. In addition, there are many risk factors including adverse factors including poor funding system of the project. In this aspect, this study extracted risk factors through in-depth interviews of local experts and then grouped factors with similar characteristics using affinity methods. Next, after applying the AHP method to calculate the importance of risk factors, we developed the risk-based preliminary investment analysis decision-making model for four categories (project planning management, corporate operation management, project technical management, project operation management). Here, the increase or decrease of risk is judged based on the average limit value. (risk increase < an average limit value < risk reduction) In addition, for the projects that passed this, a decision model was proposed for the investment analysis based on profitability based on market sales environment analysis, project location condition analysis, and project balance analysis. In order to judge the effectiveness of the presented model, this study applied it to the “A” project and the “B” project. As a result, it was found that the model had practical applicability. Therefore, the proposed model is expected to serve as a guidebook for domestic companies entering new real estate development projects in Myanmar.