컨테이너 港灣의 荷役能力 算定 및 貨物量 推定方法 開發에 關한 硏究

Abstract

To develop the feasible models of the load-unload capacity calculation and shipping forecast, the shortcomings of the conventional models are briefly discussed and comparative studies are made using the estimated results by the conventional and the present models. In the load-unload capacity model development, the field data obtained in the container terminal in Pusan Port are used to parametrize some effective parameters such the arrivals, the berth service time and waiting time characteristics, and the effect of storms for the crane works in the load-unload. The reliability and feasibility are checked, and the applicability of the model is proved by the application example to Pusan Port A schematic development planning flow of the container terminal is also proposed using the results of functional analysis with the load-unload capacity calculation model. 5 kinds of the fundamental shipping forecast models are developed and compared each other as well as the comparison between the conventional models and the present models. In the model applications, the long-term shipping forecast has a tendency of large variance due to the unknown factors and/or uncertainty of the parameters such as population, GNP, the tendency of world container cargo and port development, international socio-economic opening and regrouping ect. Using the results, it is emphasized that the reasonable shipping forecast should be made continuously as possible as short interval at least every 5 years especially in the port where the socio-economic potential will be greatly changed with the expansion of hinterland and foreland by the change of political and international relations as Pusan Port. Finally stressed the importance of temporal development planning, construction, and functional increasing of container terminal using the developed load-unload capacity estimation and cargo forecasting models based on the results of demand-supply analysis for the container terminal facilities in Korea.