COVID-19 전후 국내 가계대출의 특징과 결정요인 분석

Abstract

As of the end of 2021, Korea's household debt reached 1,862 trillion won, and the household debt-to-disposable income ratio was very high at 200.7%. Accordingly, this study looked at the level of domestic household debt before and after COVID-19 and analyzed macroeconomic variables, which are determinants of household debt. The macroeconomic variables to be analyzed were the consumer price index, the unemployment rate, the household loan interest rate, the house transaction price index and Korea Composite Stock Price Index. The period to be analyzed was 149 months from January 2010 to May 2022. For comparative analysis, the period was devided into before and after COVID-19. Pre-COVID-19 was from January 2010 to December 2019, and post-COVID-19 was from January 2020 to May 2022. The regression analysis found that an increase in the consumer price index, an increase in the unemployment rate, and an increase in the household loan interest rate decreased household loans, while an increase in the house transaction price index increased household loans. When the consumer price index and the unemployment rate rose, household loans decreased as the debt repayment burden increased. When the interest rate on household loans rose, the interest burden increased, which suppressed new loans or additional loans, and household loans decreased as repayments of existing loans increased. When housing prices rose, the demand for loans from investors as well as end users of housing increased, leading to an increase in household loans. In contrast, the regression analysis of the post-COVID-19 period found that the unemployment rate and household loan interest rate didn't have a significant effect on household loans. This is because the government's financial support has made it easier to obtain loans, and the government's intervention in the market, such as the liquidity expansion policy, has prevented lending rates from being determined by the market. And the house transaction price index has greatly increased its influence on household loans. It appears that household loans increased as investment in real estate increased due to the supply of liquidity to stimulate the economy and the decrease in borrowing costs due to low interest rates. Since COVID-19, household loans in Korea are mainly made up of high-credit, high-income borrowers with good repayment capacity, so the risk is not expected to be high. However, if real estate prices plummet, household loans are highly likely to become insolvent. Therefore, the government should focus on stabilizing real estate prices, and financial institutions should actively manage household loans to prevent them from becoming insolvent. In addition, if the economic difficulties of vulnerable borrowers and self-employed people expand after COVID-19, it may emerge as a social problem, so it is necessary to strengthen financial support for vulnerable borrowers and self-employed people.