기후변화가 양식 해조류 생산에 미치는 경제적 영향 분석

Abstract

Climate change is emerging as an important issue worldwide, and according to the 6th IPCC report, the global surface temperature increased by 1.09℃ compared to pre-industrial levels from 2011 to 2020. As a result of the climate change vulnerability analysis of farmed fish species by the National Fisheries Research and Development Institute, seaweeds were found to be the most vulnerable. Because seaweeds are fixed on the sea surface and produced, they have limitations in artificially adjusting the environment like fish, and are vulnerable to climate change due to their low adaptability. According to the IPCC's assessment report, the climate is expected to continue to change, and damage to seaweed in particular is expected to increase. Therefore, this study aims to empirically analyze the effect of climate change on seaweed production. In addition, based on the climate change scenario, the future impact on seaweed production was examined and the resulting economic loss was also reviewed. As a result of the analysis, water temperature, air temperature, and surface salinity were significant in the negative (-) direction for ​laver production, and the farming area was found to be a significant variable in the positive (+) direction. The water temperature and surface salinity of sea mustard were found to be significant variables in the negative (-) direction, and the water temperature square and rainfall were found to be significant variables in the positive (+) direction. Next, based on the analysis results, the production of laver and sea mustard was predicted using the predicted water temperature for each SSP scenario. As a result, it was found that laver decreased by 18.0∼27.2% in 2050 and 20.6∼61.6% in 2100, and sea mustard decreased by 24.8∼37.6% in 2050 and 23.7%∼34.3% in 2100. Based on the results of the production reduction analysis, the change in social benefits was estimated using the AH method. As a result, it was estimated that sea mustard would experience a decrease in social benefits of 13.8 to 15.9 billion won in 2050, and a decrease in social benefits of 9.7 to 13.7 billion won in 2100. As a result, it was estimated that laver would experience a decrease in social benefits of 33.7 to 37.6 billion won in 2050, and a decrease in social benefits of 29.2 to 77.7 billion won in 2100.