우리나라 수산물 수입가격의 환율전가효과 분석

Abstract

This study analyzed the exchange rate pass-through to the import price of fishery products. The empirical analysis divided into whole fishery products, fish, and crustaceans. The analysis was conducted on all fishery products(aggregated), fish, and crustaceans, and data such as import prices, exchange rate, consumer price index, and overseas producer price index were used. Error Correction Mechanism and Autoregressive Distributed Lags model were used to estimate the exchange rate pass-through in the long and short term. In addition, the asymmetric exchange rate pass-through was estimated by decomposing the rising and falling periods of the exchange rate. As a result of the analysis, the exchange rate pass-through to the import price of fishery products were estimated to be close to 1. In all models, the influence of the consumer price index was found to be significant. When estimating the asymmetric exchange rate pass-through, significant results were derived only for fish and crustaceans in the long-term model. In the case of fish, the exchange rate pass-through effect was larger when the exchange rate fell down, and in crustaceans, the effect was larger when the exchange rate rose. Pollack, a representative fishery products, is mostly imported from Russia, so it appears that Russian exporters have chosen a strategy to maintain their market share. Shrimp, a representative import item of crustaceans, is imported through the TRQ method and has limited quantities. For this reason, it is judged that the exchange rate pass-through is higher when the exchange rate rises.