감성분석을 활용한 수산물 소비 영향 분석

Abstract

This study explores how negative information about seafood impacts seafood consumption in South Korea by extrapolating the lagged effect that media coverage on Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant accident has on the domestic seafood consumption. The paper investigated mackerel based on a time series data set from January 2013 to December 2021, encompassing a total of 108 monthly observations. This study collected news articles from Naver News by utilizing the search terms “Fukushima” and “contaminated water”. Subsequently, a monthly sentiment index was derived from those articles by implementing a Long Short-Term Memory(LSTM) sentiment analysis model, which allowed for the classification of the articles into positive, negative, neutral polarities. In the empirical analysis, Polynomial Distributed Lag(PDL) Model was employed to estimate the lagged effects of sentiment index, domestic mackerel production, Norwegian mackerel imports, and domestic fresh and chilled mackerel prices on domestic mackerel consumption. Furthermore, impulse response analysis was applied to investigate the relationship between Norwegian import volume and sentiment index variable. The PDL analysis determined the media coverage, up to four months prior to the present moment, influences current consumption approximately by –1.2%. Accordingly, these findings demonstrated negative media coverage on seafood safety, such as the risk of radioactive contamination in seafood, has a long-term negative impact on mackerel consumption. Additionally, the impulse response analysis observed the shocks to the sentiment index influenced Norwegian mackerel imports, ranging from approximately +0.7 to +30.8%, two to six months after the shocks. Consequently, negative information about seafood has led to drop in domestic mackerel consumption, while in contrast the demand for Norwegian mackerel has risen.