기후변화에 따른 우리나라 수산업의 취약성 및 위험성 평가 연구

Abstract

Fishery resources worldwide have been consistently declining due to various factors such as overfishing, climate change, and marine pollution (FAO, 2020). Among these, climate change poses the most extensive threat to marine ecosystems caused by human activities (Halpern et al., 2008). Climate change affects the survival, growth, reproduction, and distribution of species, as well as populations and entire ecosystems. Therefore, climate change not only directly affects fisheries production by causing changes in marine biota and ecosystems, but also affects the growth and stability of aquaculture production by causing changes in the growth, reproduction and behavior of aquaculture species. To establish policies to respond to climate change, the importance of climate change vulnerability and risk assessments is growing. In the fisheries sector, the vulnerability to climate change of 36 species was assessed by combining sensitivity and exposure attributes. Based on this result, the vulnerability of 24 fisheries was evaluated. In this study, the relationship between future seawater temperatures and spawning/habitat temperatures of each species was considered as the exposure factor. Species with high scores in both sensitivity and climate exposure were evaluated as highly vulnerable, and industries with high catch rates of these species were considered relatively more vulnerable. Therefore, it is necessary to prioritize the management of industries with high catch rates of relatively vulnerable fish species when establishing future coastal fisheries policies. In the aquaculture field, the vulnerability of 17 species to climate change was assessed by combining sensitivity and impact attributes, and the risk potential of the aquaculture area was evaluated through TLS. As for the exposure factor, the relationship between the predicted future seawater temperature and the optimal/tolerable temperature thresholds for each aquaculture species was considered. The results indicated that seaweed and sea squirt were the most vulnerable species to climate change, and all species were predicted to face greater risks in 2100 than in 2050 under the SSP5-8.5 scenario. Therefore, species with a high-risk score should be prioritized in management, and different adaptation measures should be established for each species. In addition, damage of the aquaculture species to climate change was estimated by multiplying the probability of damage with the production value. The probability of damage was assessed by assigning scores based on whether the predicted future seawater temperature exceeded an optimal and tolerable temperature threshold for each aquaculture species, and it was estimated by converting it into a percentage. The estimated probability of damage was lowest in the SSP1-2.6 scenario and highest in the SSP5-8.5 scenario, with greater damage expected in the 2100 than in the 2050. Abalone, with the highest unit price, was the species with the highest damage in all scenarios, Bay scallop was the species with the lowest damage. When selecting species that require priority management to respond to climate change, the probability of damage, unit price of species, and other relevant factors should be taken into consideration. The purpose of this study is to identify management priorities by assessing the vulnerability and risk to climate change in Korean fisheries and aquaculture. It additionally aims to estimate the damage of aquaculture that could be incurred from the potential risk of climate change. The results of this study are expected to be utilized as valuable information for establishing measures and policies to respond to climate change.