석탄화력발전소 건설운영에 따른 연안환경 변화의 경제적 가치에 대한 연구

Abstract

The study is to estimate the total economic value including use value and preservation value of the change in coastal environmental ecosystems caused by the construction and operations of coal-fired power plants in Korea. Fifty six coal-fired plants were already constructed and are operating and seven ones have still been constructing, located in sixteen coastal area. First, the study focuses on the preservation value of coastal environmental ecosystems in A site using one and one-half bound dichotomous choice question(OOHBDC) of the contingent valuation method and aggregates it in a view of national level and converts it into total preservation value of all sixty three coal-fired power plants in Korea. For the reliability and the validity of CVM a survey was conducted for 720 samples by internet panel method, and using the stratified random sampling method, each sixty respondents would be willing to pay for conserving and managing the coastal beach at each six bid levels, ranging from lower limit bid/upper limit bid(2,000/4,000, 5,000/7,000, 8,000/10,000, 11,000/13,000, 14,000/16,000, 17,000/19,000) per annum and per household for five years. As a result, for the case of no covariates, the yearly median willingness-to-pay(WTP) is estimated to be 8,465.6 won and 6,973.4 won per household and truncated mean WTP 11,380.1 won and 12,486.9 won for OOHDC model and Spike model, respectively. And for the case of being covariates, median WTP 8,496.2 won and 7,011.5 won, and truncated mean WTP 11,335.5 won and 12,458.7 won for OOHDC model and Spike model, respectively. The aggregated preservation value for coastal ecosystems in A site is converted to be 45.4 billion~69.9 billion won yearly and the present value of total preservation value for 30 years with the discount rate of 5.5% be 660 billion~1,016 billion won in a view point of the nation. These can be extended that the annual total preservation value of all 63 coal-fired power plants in Korea, be 726.4 billion ~1,111.8 billion won and the present value of total preservation value of all sixty three coal-fired power plants be 10.56 trillion~16.256 trillion won. Second, the purpose of this study is to estimate the use value of coastal beaches in A site using ITCM(Individual Travel Cost Method) where count data model such as truncated Poisson and truncated negative binomial models are applied. The consumer surplus during length of stay per capita is estimated to be 173,790~20,381 won in beaches, and the consumer surplus per person and per day 68,280~80,080 won. Annual use value of its beaches considering the number of visitors in beaches can be converted to be 208.8 billiom~244.9 billion won which are about five times compared to the annual preservation value. In addition, the present value of total use value with the discount rate of 5.5% and 30 years would be 3.035 trillion~3.559 trillion in A site beaches. In conclusion, the annual total economic value would be 254.2 billion~314.8 billion won and the present value of total economic value 3.695 trillion~4.575 trillion won.