중국 거시경제지표가 호텔 및 외식기업의 경영성과에 미치는 영향

Abstract

This study examine the impact of China's macro-economy on the management performance of hotel companies and the sales of food services. This study analyze the relationship between the management performance of hotel and food services and Chinese macro-economic variables using the VECM (Vector Error Correction Model) as a multivariate time series model. The scope and setting of the research variables are as follows: The time series analysis spans a total of 63 quarters, using data from the first quarter of 2007 to the fourth quarter of 2022. The companies analyzed are limited to hotel and food services listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange and Shenzhen Stock Exchange in China as of December 31, 2022. In this study, variables that evaluate management performance include sales operating profit, operating profit ratio, return on assets (ROA), and return on equity (ROE). Macro-economic variables are classified into indicators related to the real economy sector, financial sector, and overseas trade sector. Macro-economic variables in real economy sector include gross domestic product (GDP), unemployment rate (UEP), industrial production (IP), and consumer price index (CPI). Financial sector macro-economic variables comprise Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite (SSEC), currency volume (M2), and China's 10-year Treasury Yield. Export-Import (EXIM) and Exchange Rate (EX) are used as macro-economic variables in the overseas trade sector. Regarding hotel service, The reseach findings indicate that the operating margin (OPR) of hotel companies has a positive Granger causal relationship with trade balance (LEXIM) and gross domestic product (LGDP). Currency volume (LM2) and 10-year Treasury yields (10YT) had negativel impact on OPR, while trade balance, yuan/dollar exchange rate (LEX), and unemployment (UEP) had positivel impact on OPR. GDP, trade balance, and money supply affect operating margin by up to 15%. Return on assets (ROA) has a Granger causal relationship with trade balance, money supply (M2), industrial production index (LIP), and GDP. Currency volume, yuan/dollar exchange rate, and unemployment rate had negativel impact on ROA in one quarter, followed by a positive impact in the next two to ten quarters. GDP, trade balance, and money supply affect ROA by up to 25%. Return on equity (ROE) has a Granger causal relationship with trade balance and GDP. Currency volume, unemployment, yuan/dollar exchange rate, and consumer price index (LCPI) had negativel impact on ROE in one quarter, followed by a positive impact. GDP and Consumer Price Index affect ROE by up to 22%. Gross sales (LRE) have a Granger causal relationship with trade balance and GDP. On the other hands GDP, yuan/dollar exchange rate, and consumer price index had positivel impact on LRE, while macro-economic variables such as the Shanghai Composite Index (LSSEC), money supply (LM2), industrial production index (LIP), unemployment rate (UEP), and 10-year Treasury yield (10YT) had negativel impact on total sales (LRE). The Shanghai Composite Index and the yuan/dollar exchange rate had impact on total sales by up to 22%, according to the study's findings. Regarding food services, the study found that the operating profit ratio (OPR) exhibited a positive long-term equilibrium relationship with GDP (LGDP), with LGDP having the most significant impact on OPR. Return on assets (ROA) displayed a positive long-term equilibrium relationship with GDP (LGDP), and LGDP had the most significant impact on ROA. Return on equity (ROE) showed a positive long-term equilibrium relationship with the Consumer Price Index (LCPI) and a negative long-term equilibrium relationship with the 10-year Treasury yield (10YT). The 10YT and LCPI had the most significant impact on ROE. Total sales (LRE) demonstrated a positive long-term equilibrium relationship with the yuan/dollar exchange rate (LEX) and a negative long-term equilibrium relationship with the trade balance (LEXIM). LEXIM and LEX had the largest impact on LRE.