법인세에 대한 기업의 투자 민감도 연구

Abstract

Focusing on the fact that the impact of corporate income tax on corporate investment is not uniform and varies depending on the characteristics of the firm and changes in the system, this paper analyzed the effects of 'the amount of cash flow holdings of firms, whether they have carry-forward losses, whether they are subject to the minimum tax, changes in the statutory tax rate, the extension of the maximum carry-forward period for carry-forward losses, the deduction limits for carry-forward losses, and changes in the minimum tax rate' on the investment sensitivity of firms to corporate tax. This study estimated the tax-adjusted Tobin Q model using system GMM and first-difference DID for non-financial listed corporations that were not in financial distress between 1998 and 2022. Considering the structural changes of the global financial crisis, the analysis was divided into two periods: 1998∼2009 and 2010∼2022.

As a result of the analysis, the heterogeneity factor of firms had the following effects on the investment sensitivity to taxation: First, as a result of identifying financial constraints with cash flow, financial constraints were strong before the global financial crisis, but were alleviated afterwards. Before the global financial crisis, the higher the proportion of cash flow, the more insensitive investment was to taxes, and the lower the proportion of cash flow, the more sensitive investment was to taxes and investment responded to taxes. However, after that, investment did not respond significantly to taxes. Second, Firms with carry-forward losses had lower investment rates than firms without carry-forward losses, and they were less interested in taxation. These results were seen across all companies, large corporations, and manufacturing industries. Third, firms subject to the minimum tax had a higher average investment rate and higher investment sensitivity to taxation. This impact was felt in the second quarter for all companies, large corporations, and non-manufacturing sectors.

The impact of changes in the tax regime on investment sensitivity was analyzed as follows. First, while listed companies' investment sensitivity to taxation has decreased since the global financial crisis, there is no evidence that the 2013 tax rate cut and the 2018 tax rate increase had a significant impact on investment. Second, the reduction in the minimum tax rate in '05 and '09 did not have a significant effect on investment rates and investment sensitivity to taxation, but the increase in the minimum tax rate in '13 significantly increased investment sensitivity to taxation. Third, while the extension of the deduction period in 2009 did not significantly respond to both investment and investment sensitivity to taxation, the extension of the carry-forward loss period in 2019 led to an increase in the investment rate. In 2016, the average investment rate of large firms with carry-forward losses and their investment sensitivity to taxation did not respond significantly to the reduction in the carry-forward deduction ratio.

These results suggest that structural changes caused by the global financial crisis had a major impact on investment sensitivity to financial constraints in the previous period, but financial constraints did not have a significant effect on investment sensitivity to taxation in later periods. Contrary to the concerns of some that the minimum tax system discourages investment, it has been shown that companies subject to the minimum tax have a high investment rate and investment sensitivity to taxation, suggesting that the application of an appropriate minimum tax can have a positive impact on corporate investment. The results of this analysis suggest that a one-size-fits-all tax rate reduction is not desirable when corporate investment sensitivity to taxation has been greatly reduced since the global financial crisis, and that it is important for investment to consider various corporate tax regimes. Keywords: Corporate Income Tax, Investment, Investment sensitivity