한반도 여름 가뭄의 원격 상관

Abstract

The areas where the droughts (defined by Effective Drought Index(EDI)≤-0.7) occur simultaneously over East Asia for the events of drought in Korea have been investigated. Furthermore whether the omen areas appear over East Asia, before the summer droughts occur over Korea have been investigated. May and June (July and August) droughts of Korea were identified a tendency to occurs simultaneously with central, northern China province and Mongolia (Changma seasonal rain front area and Manchuria). High drought index (Monthly Minimum EDI(MME)≥0.7) of January in Thailand, February in Mongolia, June in Bay of Bengal were related with the omen of summer droughts over Korea. And when the MME of omen areas is more than 0.7, the probability of occurrence of drought over Korea was noted as 100% for the month of May, June, August and 80% for the month of July. This was showed the possibility of drought prediction. But the droughts appeared with omen areas was about half of whole summer drought in Korea. And the regions with large of annual precipitation amount during spring or summer (areas classified as Ⅰ, Ⅱ, Ⅲ, Ⅶ) were in good agreement with symptom of omen areas.