서울 不動産市場에서 損失回避에 관한 硏究

Abstract

This dissertation is designed to verify the psychological inclination of loss aversion in human nature. People dislike incurring losses much more than they like incurring gains and are willing to gamble in the domain of losses. Investors will hold on real estates that have lost value relative to their purchased price too long or will be eager sell either to sell those that have risen in value. These inclination is called disposition effect based on the hypothesis of loss-aversion of investors. While loss-aversion may seem puzzling to some, housing market professionals are not surprised that many sellers are reluctant to realize a loss on their house. Turning to an auction market this means investors like to participate in bidding on real estates that are expected to rise in value relative to their reference prices while they dislike to participate in bidding on those that are expected fall in value relative to their reference prices. As a result the correlation between price of real estate and quantity successfully bidden is likely to show a positive sign. Housing markets is said to exhibit a strong positive correlation between prices and sales. In a boom houses sell quickly at prices close to, and many times above, the sellers' appraisal prices which result in the frequently successful bid. In a bust, however, homes tend to sit on the auction market for long periods of time with appraisal prices well above expected bidding prices. The support for loss-aversion in Seoul housing market is quite striking. As expected, the correlation between bid price of housing and quantity successfully bid in judicial auction market showed a positive sign of +0.486 with statistically significantly different from zero. At the same time the correlation between bid price of apartment housing and quantity successfully bid showed a positive sign of +0.540 with statistically significantly different from zero also. Most of the correlation between bid price of housing and quantity successfully bid in seven divided area also showed a positive sign which strongly support loss-aversion disposition of investors.