한-터키 FTA 체결에 따른 수산분야 영향 분석

Abstract

The main purpose of this study is to analyze the economic impacts of Korea-Turkey Free Trade Agreement(FTA) on the Fisheries Sector. In this paper, the impact of Korea-Turkey FTA on the Fisheries Sector is analyzed in the Partial Equilibrium Framework. To calculate the result, the study estimated the demand functions of 2001-2010 average imported fisheries product. Demand functions consist of independent variable and dependent variable. Dependent variable (Qjt)is import volume in 2001-2010. Independent variables include import price(Pjt), national income per person(Yt), import volume of items in the previous year(Qt-1), and error terms of items(εjt). Under the Partial Equilibrium, tariff reductions (abolition) decrease the price of domestic products so import volume is increase. This increase volume and price are estimated by price elasticity from the fisheries product demand function. To analysis tariff rate quota effect by quota set that range average volume 2001-2010 between average volume ±25%, ±50% and tariff set for exceeding quota that is range tariff zero between tariff ±25%, ±50%. TRQ effects are different, depending on how the quota and the tariff reduction are set and combined. In general, TRQs are more flexible than tariff adjustments. TRQs may have positive effects on the protection of sensitive products and at the same time products with a comparative advantage may promote exports. The results of this study showed that establishing an FTA between two countries may not exert much adverse effects on fisheries as a whole because relative and/or absolute fisheries weight of the two countries are very small. However, depending on the sensitivity of individual fish and fish products, they may have much political implications.