다단계 일반화 선형모형을 이용한 손상으로 인한 사망자의 지역별 차이에 대한 연구

Abstract

Background: Injury is an important issue in health problems and is on the rise as a major social and economical topic. It is also expected to increase significantly in the future. The purpose of this study is to determine regional differences of the injury statistics in cities, towns and countries about fall accidents, transportation accidents and suicides, which are recorded as the highest mortality rate in Korea. Data: The data are from the Annual Report on the Cause of Death Statistics in Korea in 2008. They include the deaths over the age 19 from fall accidents, transportation accidents and suicides with the criterion of the International Statistical Classification of Diseases. The registered population of each region is based on the registered one as of December 31, 2008. Methods: We used HGLM, based on GLM, as a small area estimation method for the discrete data. Poisson HGLM is applied to estimate the mortality rate under the assumption that the deaths follow a Poisson distribution, considering gender, age, and region. The regional differences in cities, counties and towns are marked in maps. Results: For the cases of transportation accidents and fall accidents men and older age groups showed higher mortality rate than women and younger groups, respectively. In case of suicides men over the age 65 showed higher mortality rate. There were regional differences of mortality rates for transportation accidents and suicides, but no differences for fall accidents. Conclusion: This study has not considered the correlations between small areas. Its consideration will produce better results. The result of this study yield more concerns and preventive measures on the higher mortality groups and will be helpful in planning preventive measures in each region as well.

Keyword: injury, fall accidents, transportation accidents, suicides, the mortality rate, HGLM, regional differences.