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PUKYONG Repository 대학원 환경대기과학과

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Alternative Title: Establishment of Monitoring System, Analysis of Characteristics, and Experiment of Prediction of Drought over East Asia

Abstract: This study is to develop measures to deal with droughts occurring in East Asia and provide fundamental data.
First, drought monitoring system was established to detect early and warn against droughts. Monthly precipitations during all periods of time in North and South Koreas, Japan and China in East Asia were used, and spatial distribution and time series of Effective Drought Index (EDI), Available Water Resources Index (AWRI), and precipitation in Seoul, Korea since as early as 1778 were provided. In addition, text and calculation program for each were provided as well.
Second, spatiotemporal statistics were organized to be used as basic information for the study on droughts. East Asia is divided into six drought regions and spatiotemporal characteristics for each region (starting date, duration, periodicity, and simultaneity) were verified.
Third, drought prediction tests were conducted using analog method to predict drought predictability. As part of a preliminary stage for predictability, Korea was the study subject. Korea was divided into five drought regions and daily drought codes to indicate spatial temporal drought status were made. By selecting dates when actual drought and daily drought codes correspond the most similarly and monitoring drought progress, it turned out that there is about one year predictability.

Keyword: drought drought monitoring system drought characteristics drought prediction

URI: https://repository.pknu.ac.kr:8443/handle/2021.oak/9678
http://pknu.dcollection.net/jsp/common/DcLoOrgPer.jsp?sItemId=000001963935

Table Of Contents: CHAPTER 1. GENERAL INTRODUCTION 1
CHAPTER 2. DATA AND METHODOLOGY 3
2.1. Precipitation data 3
2.1.1. Station data 3
2.1.2. Grid data 3
2.2. 가뭄의 정의 5
2.3. Cluster analysis 8
2.4. Rotated Empirical Orthogonal Function (REOF) 8
2.5. Wavelet analysis 8
2.6. Analog method 9
CHAPTER 3. 동아시아 가뭄 모니터링 시스템 구축 소개 10
3.1. 서론 10
3.2. 가뭄 모니터링 시스템 12
3.3. 실제 사례에 대한 응용 13
CHAPTER 4. 동아시아 가뭄의 지역 별 특성 분석 18
4.1. 서론 18
4.2. 가뭄 지역 구분 21
4.2.1. Cluster analysis 이용 21
4.2.2. REOF 분석을 이용한 검증 25
4.3. 가뭄 지역들의 시공간적인 특성 27
4.3.1. 연 강수 사이클 27
4.3.2. 가뭄의 시공간적 분포 지도 29
4.3.3. 가뭄 지속 기간 31
4.3.4. 가뭄 시작일과 지속 기간의 관계 35
4.3.5. 동시에 가뭄이 발생하는 지역과 이후 진행 39
4.3.6. 가뭄의 발생 주기 42
CHAPTER 5. 유사법을 이용한 한국의 지역적 가뭄 예측 45
5.1. 서론 45
5.2. 한국 가뭄의 시공간적 패턴 47
5.3. 유사법을 이용한 가뭄 예측 실험 49
5.3.1. 가뭄 코드 설계 49
5.3.2. 예시 사례 선택 50
5.3.3. 유사 사례 선택 51
5.3.4. 실험 결과 52
CHAPTER 6. GENERAL CONCLUSIONS AND DISCUSSION 56
REFERENCE 61

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