주택가격 결정요인과 주택하위시장 특성에 관한 연구

Abstract

The Housing Price Determinants and the Characteristics of the Housing Market Segmentation

Focused on the Busan Apartment Market and the Housing Policy

Sung Woo Kim

Department of Public Administration, The Graduate School, Pukyong National University

Abstract

The Korean housing policy chose its purpose and means as a part of the plan for economic development. The support about housebuilding industry and the policy to promote demand were used as a tool for the business recovery. As the result, house prices rose suddenly several times and the government tried to calm the market by the strong regulatory policy such as strengthening tax. Like this, the housing policy has been uniformly established and executed by the central government while the contradictory value of economic revitalization and the stability of housing prices coexisted. This centralized housing policy had been effective in the situation of economic development and the absolutely quantitative shortage of housing but was not effective any more due to the change of the economic structure and quantitative expansion of it since 2000. The social and economic side effect occurred as there were problems of overaction and passive action by area. This study started from problem awareness about the uniform housing policy of the central government and the contradictory value. Especially, its purpose is to find the conditions of localization to prepare the stability of house prices. For this, the various characteristics of the housing market and the determinant of housing price were examined based on the characteristics of housing. Especially, the housing submarket by area which can be the execution scope of the housing policy were divided based on substitutability of goods. And the determinant of housing price by this housing submarket was analyzed. The factors for supply and demand of housing which is the basic one of housing pricing, the macroeconomic environmental factors surrounding them and the changes of house prices in the housing submarket according to direct intervention by the government like increased restrictions or deregulation were examined. The differences in the changeable structure of house prices by the housing submarket and the political implications based on them were suggested. The study result is as follow: First, the housing submarket of Busan was classified as four areas of A area (Haeundae-gu), B area (Suyeong-gu), C area (Dongnae-gu, Nam-gu, Bukgu-gu, Geumjeong-gu, Yeonje-gu, Gijang-gun) and D area (Jung-gu, Seo-gu, Dong-gu, Yeongdo-gu, Busanjin-gu, Saha-gu, Sasang-gu). The changeable structure of house prices by the housing submarket formed the circulation loops of A area → B area → C area → D area → A area beginning from A area. Second, the changeable structure of housing prices of A area which has the structural characteristics that actual demand and investment demand were combined has the relatively high effect on the housing demand variables, leading economic indicators and M2. Direct restrictions of housing transactions related to the housing policy by the government and the speculative monitoring activity were helpful for the stability of house prices of A area. On the other hand, it has found that the other policies were not effective. Third, it has found that the house prices of B area had the big effect on macroeconomic factors when compared to the other housing submarket and the change of the supply factors was the main element which changed the house prices than housing demand. In case of the housing policy, the house prices of B area rather rose by strengthening restrictions of housing redevelopment and reconstruction, which was different from the government's intent. On the other hand, the speculative monitoring activity and market transparency stabilized the prices like A area. Forth, the house prices of C area has found that they are highly connected to the real growth rate of GDP, the fluctuation rate of KOSPI and return of corporate bond. The change of the structure of population related to housing demand had the comparatively high effect on the change of house prices. The house prices of C area showed the different response to the most housing policies from the government's intent. On the other hand, the housing policy for low-income families provided the positive result for the house prices of C area. Fifth, the house prices of D area has found that it had the high effect on leading economic indicators and KOSPI of macroeconomic variables. They showed the high response to demand variables of the housing demand and supply factors. As for the housing policy, the rest policies except the housing policy for low-income families were different from the government's intent or their effect was very low like C area. Therefore, the political implications based on this study result are as follow: First, the scope for establishing the housing policy needs to be limited. The existing housing policy had the problems of overaction and passive action as the housing market was analyzed in the perspective of one single market. Therefore, the side effect according to the uniform policy can be minimized by establishing the goal of the submarket unit in establishment of the housing policy. Second, preparation for the political means which is suitable for the characteristics of the submarket is required. Like the study result, there are the different aspects between the determining structure of the house prices by housing submarket with the homogeneous characteristics and the price change by external environmental changes. Therefore, the political establishment by housing submarket is required to accomplish the political goal like stability of the house prices. On the other hand, Monitoring the market and the activity to prevent the problems by housing submarket unit need to be prepared before the problems including sudden rise of the house prices occur. Third, to establish the policy by housing submarket and accomplish the goal, localization or decentralization of the policy is required. Housing supply ratio exceeded 100% but deviation by area is deepening. Therefore, the political establishment of the housing submarket and housing governance to accomplish the goal are required.